Bitcoin, 4 scenarios to consider for BTC in 2023

Small special edition, beginning of the year obliges. This article will focus on the different plans, more or less realistic, concerning the prices of crypto-currencies, but especially Bitcoin, the grand master, our “guide” to all. Have a good read!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice or as an inducement to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Where do we stand? What is the balance sheet for 2022?

That’s quite a question! A very Red year for the markets, both in the traditional and crypto asset sectors.

On the Bitcoin side, we can see that we have the respect of the cycle trend: 3 green candles, followed by a red candle. The latter took place, we noticed it well (LOL) with a maximum annual amplitude of -67.85% (-77.52% in total). Is the bearish movement over? That’s another question which I will answer a little further on!

On the traditional market side, we also see a nice Red candle! This one shows a retracement of -27.54%, one could say that it is already not bad. But it is relatively weak compared to the retracements of the former crises in 2000 and 2008, where it had retraced more than 50%. Will there be one last impulsive move to follow the course of things? It is not impossible, although I find it hard to imagine, given the support zones below!

However, we will still have to break this resistant right, if we want to see green candles on the traditional markets again!

We’ve talked about this rotten year, let’s move on to the next one!

2023 – Good or bad surprises?

I am going to propose four plans which, for me, are to be considered at all costs! We will start from the least probable, sliding slowly towards the most probable and the one I personally favor! I will describe them to you below before detailing them:

Oh yes, and I’m ruling out BTC going lower than $3000. Otherwise, I can go back to work and definitely give up on curve analysis. Such a drop would also mean a reversal of the 10 year trend. Just this. BTC at $0.

Scenario 1 – Yellow, because the year can also go well!

My least favorite scenario. Why? Let’s just say that the economy doesn’t look like it’s going to take off again anytime soon and unless there is a very powerful buying force out of nowhere, this scenario of going back to feel the $35,000 before resting on the $20,000 seems lunar. On the other hand, if it were to happen, it would be a nugget, we’d all be thrilled to have put in nuggets at $16,000 (no this is not investment advice!)!

Scenario 2 – The blue, the flat sea, where are the waves?

One simple scenario that could be considered is one that is simply looking to scrape up the cash without really taking any direction. This is kind of what was being set up at the $20,000 before our homeless buddy (the slip!) made us cough up the price. This would have us hovering between $18,000 and $15,000 with no direction for a year. I don’t believe it, because we will inevitably have a liquidity crisis, leading to a strong movement in one direction or the other! And these are the principles of the next two scenarios!

Scenario 3 – Red, long live the fangs, here’s some blood

We start, finally, to enter the most probable scenarios! Here we have stopped out for a bit in a place with no prior trade. And we have plenty of support between the $10,000 and $12,000 representing THE top signal of the previous bullrun. Another big point is the $13,800, being the neckline of a never retested monthly W! But just because it’s a big support doesn’t mean we’ll necessarily go touch it.

However, what could lead us to visit it are on the one hand leverage building up on Bitcoin and/or altcoins, which would lead to a bearish liquidity crisis and bye bye, we visit the SOUTH. But also an additional Black-Swan event like FTX was, for example, reboot with Binance! Or, a global economic crisis that deepens with another massive and aggressive fall of the SPX, taking all assets with it.

This can be scary, especially since this exhaustive list is plausible in itself, so we must remain wary! Already there are not many people left in the markets, there would be even less.

Nevertheless, the positive point of all this is that the $12,000 seems to be very much expected by investors, and in general the market does not go where the majority expects. This would not make a stop in price where it is now harmless either! Which brings us to our last scenario.

Scenario 4 – Green, the realistic optimist scenario

As you can see, the last scenario is the one I prefer. My last sentence speaks for itself on the previous scenario, but in addition the technical indicators were already showing a potential bottom at $20,000 with the bearish movement losing steam. Let’s go over my reasoning together.

Before I move on to the analysis, I would like to remind you that we are coming out of an annual red candle, after 3 green candles, in principle if we continue to follow this cycle, this year’s candle should be green, which would imply a price close on December 31, 2023 above $16,616.

Now for the analysis. Here, I’m going to go back to 3 important points, and finally a fourth point that I’m waiting for, to call the technical bottom.

• The price has broken its downtrend line in white. This is a crucial step, which happened during every bottom phase, to be able to go up again;
• The MACD which is a momentum indicator (the yellow histogram, third cell) has been diverging – MACD is not going down anymore while the price is going down – for a few weeks already! This means that the selling force is disappearing, ideal to form a bottom;
• Volatility (last indicator) is in the green. This shows that the market is no longer volatile, and we need this kind of phenomenon to be able to put a bottom;
• Finally, and I remind you, this one is not done yet. I am waiting impatiently for the divergence, this time, on the RSI (second cell) which would arrive in parallel to a break of $18,387.95 at the weekly close to form the weekly W expected to form THE bottom.

The green scenario is thus the bottom scenario, allowing this year to have a return certainly above $21,500 in order to liquidate the shorts of the FTX era. Then a retest of the current zone, to finally launch the beginning of the next bullrun of the years 2024 – 2025.

I hope you like this one, I do. In particular, it would allow me to practice a DCA for another 1 year.

Conclusion

One should not leave a complete dead scenario, one can never “predict” what the market will do. However, one can consider scenarios and favor some of them, that’s what an investor, but also a trader, should do. Here, I will only reveal my plan on Bitcoin, because I can’t envisage plans on altcoins, some will never recover from the bearmarket, some will never perform again, and still others will go x1000. What I do know is that if Bitcoin doesn’t go up, they won’t go up for long, and if Bitcoin goes down, they will all go down hard.

And you’ll understand, I favor the green scenario, however for this to happen, the SPX will also have to break its downtrend, which is crucial for an economic recovery, and the arrival of liquidity on the markets! While waiting to see what this new year has in store for us, I wish you all prosperity in everything you do (unless you haven’t read this far, BOUUUUH). Hoping to see more and more of you reading me, and especially enjoying my analyses! Happy new year 2023.