Crypto – Is an altseason coming ?

A moment awaited by the craziest investors is of course the famous altcoin season! Because this is the time when you can potentially make the most profit, but also when you can lose the most too. Is it the beginning? Or not?

Warning This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. It is for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for your trading and investment decisions.

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What’s an altcoin season?

An altcoin season is when altcoins – all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin – start to outperform the latter. This means that altcoins will tend to rise more in percentage terms than Bitcoin. And also to fall less if BTC falls.

In general, however, this marks the end of a cycle, because what follows an altcoin season is a bear market that lasts for at least a few weeks.

Why would now be a good time?

We’ve just come out of a Bitcoin ETF announcement after several weeks of asset growth, from $16,000 to almost $50,000. It looks like it’s time for him to take a breather. So we’re closer to a sell-the-news with a distribution pattern on the way rather than a pre-bull.

However, during its meteoric rise, altcoins, and Ethereum in particular, didn’t outperform any more than that. Instead, they followed Bitcoin on some, and even clearly underperformed, as is often the case during a bear market / boring market.

What’s more, the expectation of an Ethereum ETF announcement is coming, with one expected in May, which could kick-start the ETH machine for several weeks. Given that Ethereum is the king of altcoins, then it would certainly re-launch altcoins in its stride, with it!

Beware, this is purely speculative, so look out for indicators to help us confirm a potential phenomenon in this direction!

What are the key signals for anticipating an altcoin season?

The ETH/BTC Pair

ETHBTC 2024 01 18 15 21 09 - Coinpri
ETH / BTC pair on Binance weekly

The first fateful signal is that of the ETH/BTC pair! Indeed, it must show strength, a significant bullish comeback to show that ETH is leading the way. What’s more, we’ve been in a clear range on this pair for several weeks now! The arrival of an altcoin season will therefore be associated with a return of the ETH/BTC pair to the top of the range, i.e. around 8500 Satoshi (i.e. 0.000085 BTC) for 1 ETH.

Total 3

TOTAL3 2024 01 18 16 31 47 - Coinpri
Crypto Total 3: Total cryptocurrency MarketCap without Bitcoin and Ethereum

Total 3 is the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. It therefore represents all altcoins. This capitalization has stalled a little in an irrelevant zone: the real weekly resistance is above $640 billion! This provides a good target if the last high point, $534 billion, is broken.

Conclusion

It’s always hard to say when an altcoin season will take place. In any case, assets are entering the cryptocurrency market, always in this order: Bitcoin then Ethereum then top 20 then top 100 then the rest, especially in bullrun. Here, we’re certainly in the early stages, but there are cycles within a cycle, and it could be that the Bitcoin ETF heralds the end of the cycle for Bitcoin.

In that case, we can expect the Ethereum ETF to signal the end of the altcoin season cycle, expected for May 2024. We can therefore expect this asset to make a comeback, taking altcoins with it. However, an altcoin season doesn’t last 5 months! Rather, it lasts 2 or 3 weeks! And then the Bitcoin boss will call all the others to order!

So remember to watch the signals carefully, and note the sentiment. If sentiment turns bullish on altcoins, then we could cut short that hope! Have a good day/evening and see you next week for my next article!