Bitcoin, towards the attack of BTC s(ites)upports

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Here we go!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice or as an inducement to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

For those of you who haven’t seen my latest analysis, I invite you to do so. You’ll notice (potentially) that this week we did the first phase of the yellow arrow drawn 7 days ago.

BTC/USDT Binance, highlighting last week's movement
BTC/USDT Binance, highlighting last week’s movement

This first step consists in liquidating the last entries in short positions (betting on the fall). It is now done, because the price went higher than the last high point. I let you see the highlight in the chart below :

Future Bitcoin. Red line = liquidation price of shorts in the range
Future Bitcoin. Red line = liquidation price of shorts in the range

The question now is:

Are we going to have another bearish attack (Which won’t necessarily involve a new low, but at least of an attempt), or are we going to go back up?

Analysis of the week

A short reminder before we continue. Here, the analysis is based on points that I use in my daily analysis. I may be right or wrong, but remember that in the end, the market is always right.

The SPX position

The SP500 is THE benchmark to follow in the traditional market. It represents the 500 largest US technology companies.

If it is doing well, then the Risks-On are doing well. That’s why it’s important to keep it on hand for analysis. Alas, this one is for the fourth time in a tricky position!

Highlighting the strength of the SPX
Highlighting the strength of the SPX

Indeed, the resistance, which has been present for almost a year, has struck again! Not in a violent way for the moment, but it has done its job again. This could lead us to believe that the beginning of this week will lead to a decrease in the price, because most of the time, we have to close a resistance.

Here, as long as we don’t have a real breakout of it, it will continue to reject us as it did the previous times.

Note that each time it rejected us, the price of SPX and BTC made a new low (the last one accentuated by FTX on the crypto side).

What does the Orderflow show

Orderflow is an analysis of asset movements to tell if people are positioned to buy, sell, etc.

Two interesting points to discuss again this week.

The first is the same as seven days ago: FOMO (=Fear Of Missing Out) is still taking hold on altcoins. And big leveraged positions are opening up especially long, implying a bearish attack on Bitcoin.

Open interests of altcoins rise with funding pushing towards the positive: increase in long positions
Open interests of altcoins rise with funding pushing towards the positive: increase in long positions

Why? Because if Bitcoin goes down all other cryptocurrencies go down! So the long open on altcoins will certainly get liquidated!

The second point, which highlights a problem with the price structure is the spot CVD of Bitcoin:

Bitcoin price rises when spot CVD falls
Bitcoin price rises when spot CVD falls

A divergence is created, the price of $BTC increases, in parallel the money injected into the spot (trading without leverage, usually investment) decreases.

This means that the price does not go up, because we buy, but the price goes up to liquidate on leverage! And this is a big problem, because to resume a bull market, you need buyers, not just liquidations in the North.


I think if you’ve made it this far, you should know my take on the week. Yes? No? Come on!

Well done (I hope I’m saying well done), I think we’re going to retest the lows, they can potentially hold, it will depend on how the altcoin traders react in particular. We need to close their leveraged positions. On the other hand, the SPX is getting rejected by its resistance, which should make it make a few red candles this week. This should also drag down our friends in cryptocurrencies! Take care friend trader, this is just one view. But in any case, as an investor, if I have to do my DCA on Sunday, for once I’ll wait until Tuesday, just in case! See you next week!