Bitcoin, towards a new dive into the Abyss?

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Here we go!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

It is rare to have a decisive week following so much volatility and it is true that it continues to decrease. The weekend was a holiday for the US increasing this calm. A calm before the n-th storm?

Last week’s scenario did not happen, because nothing happened this week! However, I keep the same scenario, you can find it here. Or, more easily, look at the chart! The yellow arrow indicates a sell-off followed by a bearish attack! I will however add some arguments.

Analysis of the week

During this flat phase, we can see two very important things. The first is that the bullish recovery from this week’s sell-offs is not supported by buying!

Indeed, what we see here is that the first arrow is rising, representing the Bitcoin price, as well as the last one, representing the buy positions on the Binance “perp” contract, so leverage!

The second arrow is flat and represents the “real” purchases, those made as investments on the classic “spot” contract. You will understand that a rising price, without real buyers… This is not a good sign.

The second point is what is happening with altcoins (all cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ethereum):

Here, we can see that the Open Interests (representing leveraged positions) keep increasing… Bugger! Especially since the funding tends to the positive, revealing that these positions are leverage buyers … Increasing the weight of liquidations in the South …

These two arguments are enough for me to explain my dismay at the stupidity of players, seeking to “buy the fu****g dip” on altcoins with leverage. A feeling that one cannot accept to hope to put a bottom.

Conclusion

You will have understood, for me the clear direction is south, we will probably have a small attack on the upside to get out some short positions, but not more. What is incredible is that on the other hand, it seems that we are on a bottom on the side of Risk On (which includes Bitcoin).

The dollar, the reference safe haven for professionals, has reached the top of the market. For its part, the SP500, THE guiding value for Risk On, will try this week to break the resistant line that has forced it down since last January. A breakout would be a VERY strong sign for the markets! This will certainly depend on the policy that the FED will decide to carry out, which seems to be leaning more towards a decrease in the rate increase, a reassuring fact for investors! We must therefore remain on the lookout and especially continue to educate yourself!