Bitcoin, in the green, we hope it continues!

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Here we go!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice or as an inducement to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Last week’s debrief

Well, I was right as usual! (chief editor’s note: LIAR)

The market went up faster than expected and I thank it for that. The important thing is that we are on a big change, because this week’s movement clearly announces the bottom with a weekly W that is finishing to form!

Finally! And I’ve been waiting for it for a while, the weekly W with RSI confirmation (bearish trendline breakout and divergence validated) and MACD (third divergence validated), volume confirmation, SPOT buy confirmation and not leverage. In short! A bottom certainly set for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market!

In any case I said, for long term investors, a DCA could be set up for a while. I had unexpectedly pointed to the bottom before FTX, a black-swan event, came along to add its two cents. However, the bottom seems to be there, EXCEPT for a major global event that would destroy the entire market.

Analysis of the week

Um, it’s hard to do an analysis of the week when you’ve had a move like the one last week. You have to know two things, when Bitcoin goes, it leaves little opportunity to get on the train. Nevertheless, I don’t think we will have a Bullrun recovery scenario, far from it! Hence my second point.

To validate a weekly W, you have to touch up what is called the Neckline.

This one is at $18,387 as seen in the first chart. But here we see something VERY important. The previous support area, before FTX, is back in play. Not surprisingly (the market has a memory), it not only matches our new support area, but also the neckline of the weekly W.

In addition, we sold off the $21,473 that was THE peak of the last shorts in position. This didn’t give us any more energy to move higher, surprisingly. But, it reinforces my idea that a retest of the support area should come within the week, to validate it. Ideally we could even stay there for some time to form a new W, meaning the complete validation of the area.

Finally, another analysis to do is that of altcoins:

As said last week, when I thought that the positive funding would prevent us from going up, the altcoin funding is clearly above zero. It is accompanied by a continuous increase in the Open-Interest, so it is rather a bearish feedback signal for me.

Conclusion

As you can see, all of my points are in line with what I believe will be a bearish comeback for Bitcoin to really validate our weekly W (back between $19.5k and $17k). However, the market could still make me lie and continue its climb, allowing it to prevent those who did not get in, from buying late and regretting it later.

Don’t forget that for the past few bearish weeks you could have had a plan in place, and a rise in Bitcoin doesn’t have to change them. A return to the $17,000 area is not impossible, which will probably still leave great opportunities on the entire cryptocurrency family.