Bitcoin, Full of Oxygen Before Apnea?

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Let’s get started!

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

I’ll end up believing that I’m not too bad at technical analysis… Oh yes, it’s true that I write articles on it. Well, let’s keep on pretending, it seems to work.

In any case, last week, I was expecting a downward recovery before a new rise, and it did not fail. The drop at the beginning of the week was not as deep as I thought it would be because we did not sell off the longs. However, we did recover nicely on the upside to settle quietly in the target area.

Now let’s study the week ahead!

Analysis of the week

Alas, I’m not going to be bullish like a rocket every week. I am not a tothemoonist! I try to be as straight as possible and now the Fomo (=Fear Of Missing Out) is starting to show!

Divergence in formation

On the short term, we see that divergences are starting to form! This shows a slowing down of the upcoming rise. The result of divergence can be a stagnation of the price or a reversal on the short term.

A divergence is a rise in price when indicators of strength (such as the RSI in purple and the MACD in yellow shown above) move down.

Here, the price is in the process of setting them, they are not yet validated, but it already shows a slowdown in the ongoing rise.

FOMO in the Altcoins

The fear of missing an opportunity is a real pain in the ass for healthy price rises. Indeed, here, as bitcoin is just starting to rebound, we can see prices run amok on some altcoins.

However, since not everyone was able to get in on time, some people think that leveraging altcoins that have already taken off is a good idea.

Spoilers: it rarely is!

In the chart above, we see in order that as soon as the price of Bitcoin rises with OI (Open Interest) rising (many positions open) and the funding settles into the positive (many long in position) there often follows a fall in Bitcoin.

But why fall? Quite simply, because in reality Altcoins are indexed directly to BITCOIN! Not the dollar!

So as soon as Bitcoin falls, it takes ALL the altcoins with it. Nothing better than for Bitcoin to fall to punish all the long shots on altcoins!

Conclusion

I think the conclusion is clear… I don’t see Bitcoin going crazy again. Especially since you saw it well in last week’s Debrief, but this rascal is on resistance, so having a bearish attack would seem logical!

But how far down? I think it really depends on how the altcoins behave at that point.

Personally, I would see a return to at least the white horizontal zone, between $19,550 and $19,950! But why?

Because this is what we call a pullback on W! Here we have a nice daily W that has formed and it would be natural to return to test these points to validate the support. In addition, this area would allow to liquidate a lot of longs on altcoins, and thus to put the clocks back on this side!

I hope you enjoyed this analysis! Of course, it’s not an exact science and I could be wrong! I’m just giving you some points of view that are important to me! We will have to be careful again this Wednesday in the early afternoon with the US inflation figures which could bring volatility to the markets (and therefore a direction maybe?)! Have a great week and remember to secure your cryptos properly!