Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, what now?

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Here we go!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice or as an inducement to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

A week that feels good! A week that was decisive and allowed us to validate a new high. So we officially have a trend reversal. Of course, it will have to be validated via a retest of the $18,000 – $20,000 area during 2023. However, it seems that the hardest part is behind us.

We closed last week on resistance (red zone below). Nevertheless, a new buying momentum has allowed us to break out of this area. We even touched $22,850, which was the next area of selling liquidity to be liquidated.

This red zone will now turn green, as it will now be a support zone. This movement of Bitcoin reminds us of something important. That is that once a train leaves the side of this volatile asset, it is difficult to have entry opportunities (at least in the short term). We are then presented with two choices. FOMO (=Fear of missing out) or patience. In general, FOMO leads to a loss of money when patience pays off. We’ll see this year.

Now for my analysis of the week.

Analysis of the week

We have the beginnings of breathlessness all the same that we can put forward with the beginnings of divergence.

Here, we can see that the price is rising and that the momentum indicators (RSI in purple and MACD below) are starting to make no more highs. This means that the movement is starting to run out of steam. However, not only are the divergences not yet validated, but a strong move can continue to move higher even when we start to see the beginnings of divergences (especially when they are not valid like here).

Another important point is that FOMO is starting to take hold on altcoins.

Indeed, we see an open interest (number of open positions) that continues to rise with a funding that settles in the positive meaning a volume of positions that increases. Danger.

But don’t worry, it looks like the climb isn’t over yet! The next target (which will be obvious to you soon) is Bitcoin’s next liquidity zone. This is at the last high point, the $25,200 target on the perpetual contract!

Conclusion

As you can see, for me we will not turn around until we have liquidated the last high points at $25,200. The next one is above $32,000, but we would be in scenario 1 that I do not favor. (But what scenario is the guy talking about? Go read that my friend, and you’ll see how beautiful and ongoing my favorite scenario, 4, is).

In a more global viewpoint that still worries me, is that we continue to tap and test resistance on the $SPX (500 largest US tech companies) without breaking it.

We have hit it five times already, let’s hope that the sixth one is the right one and that we finally break this resistance to put a W on the traditional US market which should allow a healthy bullish recovery on all markets. In the meantime, I hope you have a good week and I’ll see you next week.