Bitcoin, say Goodbye to its Downward movement and Hello to the Moon

New week, new analysis and, like every week, we start by going back to the analysis of the previous week then, I explain my vision of Bitcoin (BTC) for the current week. Let’s go !

Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. This is just an article for purpose strictly informative. You are the only responsible trading and investment decisions you makez.

Note: this analysis was written this Monday at the end of the morning, despite the addition of news items.

Debrief of the past week

A very dark week happened on Bitcoin, but also on all markets in general. The crisis of SVB has led to many economic dangers, forcing investors to take refuge in the dollar as usual during dangerous events. What’s more Circle and its USDC was exposed to this bank which also caused the stablecoin to fall.

Personally, I don’t think the USDC will be really impacted in the long term, because the USDC exposure was not very large (less than 10% of the total USDC backing). However, it is better to be safe than sorry and wait for the storm to pass by staying safe, even now that USDC has repegged.

On the Bitcoin side, we have returned to the target that I had set for myself to be VERY interesting, given the previous reactions to these price levels. I thought we would get there before the summer, but this crisis (or anecdote, the future will tell) precipitated the inevitable. Additionally, Sunday’s move without the pros was simply due to a short squeeze. Indeed many late sellers got into position and we were punished by the bots.

Analysis of the week

Before analyzing anything, it is necessary to recap the current situation.

So far what we see is that the bearish movement is strong, which is to be expected as it is fueled by fear. You will notice in particular how quickly the feeling went from: “we’re going to $28k” To “we’re going to $12k”. Which is a pretty good sign.

Whether the ROI where the MACD, the bearish momentum is strong, no sign of divergence on big UT (Unit of time) for the moment. Even if the bullish recovery of the last hours could give rise to a bullish return. Do not declare victory too soon.

On the orderflow side, we can see some very interesting things:

1. Open Interests (which represent the number of open positions in leverage) have returned to their lowest equivalent at the price of $16-17k for Bitcoin.
2. In addition, we can see that on the funding (penultimate line) it sinks after the liquidations with a slight increase in the Open Interests which means that many sellers come into position. A nice wick of liquidation took out plenty of stragglers. However, what the long ratio certainly shows is that now professionals are starting to get into a short position.

Finally that of the altcoins:

They are also similar to Bitcoin. They were well rinsed even if their Open Interests remain even higher than that of the bottom.

The funding crashes with a slight recovery of position, there too sellers are appearing, but have been punished directly. It will be necessary to wait a little before seeing whether the balance is rather buying or selling, even if the market conditions suggest that a lot of sellers are present.

Now, what about all of this together?

Conclusion

It would seem that the SVB affair is also impacting cryptocurrencies, in particular via Circle and its USDC, and to this is added the new upward recovery in rates and Joe Bien’s speech.

On the orderflow side, what we see is that many sellers enter into position aggressively. He might get there and relaunch a bearish attack, but the move won’t be like the previous one. In any case, if we remain in a situation like this with a lot of sellers, we can say to ourselves that the end of the decline is not that far away!

Personally, I wouldn’t gamble on a return below $16k, without a -50% in the traditional markets. Let’s think about having an overview and a global understanding. If the FED does not want to repeat its mistake of 1929, then it will be forced to heavily reprint banknotes to revive the economy. Long live the debt.