Bitcoin on the Launch Pad, Time to Stop Doing DCA?

New week, new analysis, after the (expected!) explosion of last week, let’s see where we are and if we can continue this little rally! Here we go!

Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. This is just an article for purpose strictly informative. You are the only responsible trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

In the previous post, we were discussing a probable end of decline. I was far from thinking that we would have the energy to reach the next resistance! The famous $12,000 seems a long way off now.

Resistance has been hit. This one was on the former range low around $28,000. What must be remembered is that when Bitcoin starts a bullish movement, it leaves very few possibilities to return…

If you still haven’t returned, you will have a drastic choice to make:

1. Let yourself be tempted by FOMO
2. Wait patiently (probably) this summer, for a more pronounced retracement?

More or less long-term analysis – end of the DCA?

As I stated just above, it is very hard to get back into Bitcoin once a bullish movement is triggered, it gives very few opportunities. Even if the $19.5k at the start of last week seemed like the perfect opportunity, only time will tell if that was the case. In any case, there are two things to note about this movement.

The first one is that we made a beautiful cup and handlethat is aimed at the cash flow that is around $32,000.

The second is that we have reached the level signifying the end of DCA, which is THE signal that tells me I can’t buy on the long term anymore. It was indeed at the 0.618 Fibonacci : $28,282.

These two remarks / observations are not to be kept as such for the week, but on a medium term scale for the first and long term for the second, because it directly concerns the next Bullrun.

Analysis of the week

For this week, we are on a good resistance which was and will inevitably encounter sellers. For what ?

The people who had bought the old bottom of the range at $28,000 are selling because they can finally recover their investment. They also say to themselves that they will be able to buy lower or that the cryptos are crap and will go to $0.00.

You will have understood it, this week is likely to be less bullish on Bitcoin than the previous one because the resistances in front of us will be difficult to overcome.

What about altcoins?

For them, it’s a bit slower. But it makes sense. The inflow of capital is always done by Bitcoin and then by altcoins, descending lower and lower in the MarketCap ranking.

The good news is that the orderflow does not show aggressive FOMO movement on altcoins (no need for a graph for once). However, on Bitcoin, it is quite different:

We see that many sellers have returned to position. On the bearish rally, they usually heralded a decline in price. However, the rise has just resumed, so we have to see over a few sessions if they will still have the same effect or if now they will allow a bullish continuation by liquidating them.

Conclusion

So the end of the DCA? For me, it’s yes, unless we go back lower. We are too close to my limit at $28,200 for me to continue it. I will wait patiently until next summer for certainly new opportunities!

As for the week ahead, altcoins have not yet made their move, so I see no reason for a short term bearish return. Moreover the FED will have to make a drastic decision to avoid the collapse of the banks. I expect a repricing on this side and too bad for inflation. The meeting will take place on Wednesday, let’s see what comes out of it. In the meantime, I wish you a good week!