Bitcoin – Insurmountable Resistance?

For the past few days, weeks, we’ve been bumping up against resistance that keeps rejecting us. In particular, it is Bitcoin’s new highest close ever.

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BTC range at the top

We’re stuck! Not only by resistance, but also by support. The latter allowed the price to react nicely, but there’s a lot of selling on the red line… What does it represent?

It is resistance, “yes, you’ve already said that!”. So what if I’m rambling? No, seriously, it corresponds to the monthly close in March, the highest in Bitcoin’s history, of course, but this is no coincidence. We’ve got wicks banging away at it, with the price going back down again afterwards, showing that big wallets are using this price to sell, the 71 280$our new terror.

What can we expect and hope for from Bitcoin chart analysis?

As usual, I’ll try to outline the positives and negatives.

Positive

We haven’t passed halving yet, nor the Ethereum ETF, and we don’t have many new ones on the market yet. That’s it, that’s it.

Negative

We need to calm down. What’s happening at the moment is all about magic money, with airdrops, tokens flying off in all directions, and above all, we’re talking about tokens that have no real relevance, but whose values are exploding… In short, it feels like the end of a cycle. Except that, in terms of timing, there’s still a good year’s margin left.

We’re told never to time the market, that it’s risky blah blah blah, in which case we’ll have to think about selling? Of course not! On the other hand, thinking about taking profits on the rise seems like very lucid portfolio management!

In short, we could discuss madness for hours, but what we really want to see are some figures, especially on the altcoin side!

On each rise, it’s FOMO land on altcoins, which is certainly blocking Bitcoin’s price growth (accentuated by giga resistance). How can we see this? Quite simply, because open interests are exploding (quantity of open positions) with funding on the rise (positive funding = mostly buying positions). This highlights the aggressive buying of leveraged altcoins. Not good, boo.

What’s more, on the Bitcoin side, the sentiment represented by spreads remains very bullish, so-called bullish. This tends to be detrimental, as bearish sentiment is preferred for a healthy rise.

Conclusion to the Bitcoin analysis for the week of April 1, 2024

Without a change in sentiment to break this zone around $71,280 it seems unlikely that we’ll see a surge this week. Of course, I could be wrong! But in a case like this I’d be more inclined to position myself on the downside for a visit to the bottom of the range. The market evolves and so do our convictions. This is very true in the short term and rarely changes over the long term.

The conclusion? It’s best to take a step back!
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