Bitcoin, a Moment of Peace before the Recovery?

New week, new analysis, after a very boring week for all, where very little happened, do we have any indicators that can help us for the next adventure?

Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an investment inducement. It is intended for informational purposes only. You are the only responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

Last week we were in the middle of a bullish move, and we are more in a wait-and-see position for the FED than a move. We had a great stagnation of the price at $27,500 plus or minus $1,000.

The interesting point is that we work this resistancee, every time they try to send us back to the SOUTH, we manage to find buyers to stay in that area. The potential to break a resistance that we work increases over time. But what about it? What is happening in the indicators and on the altcoins? Can we know?

Analysis of the week

Tradi

This week, inflation and growth figures are expected on the US side. They should set the world on fire and the FED continues to raise the points slowly while waiting for a collapse. I’m making a big shortcut, because they believe that this could regulate itself (LOL!) given the fear that is taking hold of the markets. However, for once, that fear looks good as we are finding buyers on gold, but also on Bitcoin. So will it serve finally an anti-crisis asset? This is a question we will have an answer to if a big crash (on the traditional side) were to happen.

Bitcoin

On the Bitcoin side, two patterns are potentially formed on the chart:

The first would be a continuation triangle, the second a reversal diamond.

Two distinct figures, with two very different consequences: the first one would surely give us access to the $32,000 while the second one would send us back to the last support of the $24,000.

Nevertheless, we are currently working a resistance above the 0.236 Fibonacciwhich suggests that the current strong move is not over. In addition, on the side of momentum indicators, such as the RSI or MACD, it would seem that the necessary breath for the recovery is made, even if it does not guarantee a bullish recovery.

I haven’t mentioned orderflow today, because for now, there is nothing to talk about. The move is supported by the SPOT, which is buying without leverage, so we can go up as long as it continues.

Altcoins

However, for altcoins, I usually just look at the orderflow rather than one altcoin by one altcoin.

And this is very interesting! Because unlike the previous move to $23,000 which required a bearish attack (as many positions had opened on altcoins), here it is not! Open interests are lower than the rise to $23,000 and the funding is not exploding, it is close to “0” which is at 0.01 in positive. This is excellent for a bullish continuation of Bitcoin!

Options Expirations

This week we have a big option expiration as we accumulate the monthly and quarterly close!

As a reminder, options are purchases in exchange for fees that one can pay to protect one’s investments in case of a rise or fall in the price of Bitcoin and/or Ethereum. Below is the Bitcoin chart that you can find at BasedMoney.

In green are the long buys and in red are the short buys. We can see that the max pain price (=price that hurts the most, because where the most people lose money) is at $24,000. Our location could allow us to liquidate almost all the buyers of shorts (current price $27800) but also the big peak buyer of $30,000!

Conclusion

Quite a few details today that can be bought or sold.

• Seller, for options calling to pull towards $24,000, but also by the diamond that is forming.
• Buyer, for the triangle, but also the fact that we are working a major resistance without getting rejected yet! Also, the orderflow of altcoins is fabulous, as there is no FOMO setting in and until I see that happen, I won’t be selling on crypto currencies.

As you’ll have gathered, I’m more on a rise in Bitcoin at the moment than a fall. So, will it happen this week? Possibly, but we may have to wait for both the US figures at the end of the week and the expiration of the options contracts. And finally, I wish you a good week and see you next week!