We’re still in this top range after unfortunately revisiting the bottom of it. And yes, the triangle mentioned did not break in the desired direction, alas! What’s going to happen this week at the end of April 2024?
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Bitcoin’s range never ends!
The range, the range, the range! And yes, since they represent 70% of the market, we’re bound to come back to them often! The important thing is to know how to analyze them, and for the wise, how to trade them!
The good news is that it’s a pretty nice range! After cancelling our triangle, we could have taken fright, but Bitcoin decided to do exactly as it does in a range, liquidating low positions and re-entering it.
Why is this good news? In a range, when you make false breaks and finally get lazy, it often means that you’re going to go back and visit the other side of the range. In our case, we’re still talking about $71,000, enough to make anyone happy! Beware, however, as this looks like a distribution pattern, and in this case, we’re very close to the top sign.
Oh yes, this weekend there was also halving, which is already prized of course, we’ve just made a +300% in a few months eh! On the other hand, a future drop in “sell the news” mode is possible, in which case we’d be back on several weeks of declines like in 2013.
A prediction! What does orderflow tell us?
If you’re joining us, then you don’t know it, but I look at orderflow a lot for my short-term analyses, and long-term ones too, but we’re talking about a week here, so of course it’s rather short!
Bearish sentiment?
This graph may not speak to you, but it’s excellent!
Here, we’re comparing the leveraged Bitcoin price, which is the top graph with the spot Bitcoin price. This difference is called the “spreads”, which is the chart below. When spreads are positive, players are said to be “bullish”, which is rather negative, as the market is always moving in the other direction. Conversely, when spreads are negative, the market is said to be “bearish”, which is positive!
And here, we’re in for a treat, because the conclusion is crystal-clear: at the moment and since the return to the bottom of the range, spreads have once again become strongly negative, indicating pessimistic market sentiment and a potential opportunity for the bulls to break through resistance.
Altcoins liquidated in recent days
More madness. Here we look at the orderflow of altcoins. The first piece of information that jumps out is the second curve, which has fallen sharply. This curve is the open interest of altcoins. In other words, the number of open leveraged positions on them. The fall means that a very large number of positions have been closed – more than half! It’s wild, but it’s really healthy for the market and very positive indeed!
What’s more, as a result of these liquidations, we have funding, the third curve, which has moved back into the red for quite a few days, something that hasn’t happened since the $30,000 mark! It’s incredible to see this happen so quickly and so high up.
All this just goes to show how fragile the latest players are, and how quickly they can be disgusted. A bearish sentiment has therefore set in on altcoins too. Quite bullish, in fact!
Conclusion
Overall market sentiment seems to be indicating, with a majority of bearish players seeing the price fall for several weeks/months in order to calm everyone down, especially the latest entrants. However, BTC’s recent fall near the $60,000 support level has already made a big dent in open positions and market sentiment, and it looks like the orderflow is showing a bullish comeback for the next few days. This should allow us to return to the top of Bitcoin’s range, at the $71,000 level, even if we have no guarantees for this end of April 2024.
On that note, I wish you a pleasant week! We’ll meet again next week to review this analysis and start a new one.
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.
