What scenario for 2024 Bitcoin? Following the SEC’s validation of Bitcoin ETFs on Wednesday evening, it’s time to ask about the impact on the market as well as the various possibilities that await us for 2024!
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Before the 2024 Bitcoin scenarios, back to 2023!
This morning, rereading the article which dates back to last year, to see what scenarios we can think about! A quick graphic reminder about 2023:
We can see that the 4 scenarios were really different in order to expect everything. In the end, scenario 1 was the closest to reality. This one consisted of scraping the $25,000 liquidity and hoping to make a push up to the $34,000 resistance. In the end, the actual scenario was much more bullish than expected, as the price of 2023 closed at $42,280, to the delight of all the survivors of this bearmarket.
2024, the year of all expectations
The impact of bitcoin ETFs, new ETFs for ETH, halving and a potential bullrun. In short, a lot is happening in crypto this new year, so what will be the impact for 2024 Bitcoin? Let’s take a look at 4 likely scenarios together, so that everyone can choose the one they like best!
Scenario 1: To Da Moon
Will Scenario 1 win again this year? Possibly. Indeed, when halving passes, there is generally very little deep retracement. What’s more, a linear rise prevents new entrants from taking advantage of a retracement to profit from attractive prices. This scenario is a bit like the anti-newcomer who would wait for a lower price to enter, and unfortunately ends up FOMO. A target at the $100,000 level for this scenario is conceivable.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin 2024, pull back and off we go!
A funny scenario is that ETFs and halving make noise and new people arrive. These people would then buy a local top before suffering -30% on their portfolio. If they’re not seasoned, they’ll surely sell as the $34,000 – $37,000 support should kick in. In this scenario, we’d be off again very quickly, so as not to leave any new opportunities open to investors.
Scenario 3: Return of the boring market
To disgust newcomers, we could even retest our super $30,000 support, either via a wick or by planting deep doubt in investors’ minds. But the purple trendline would then formalize its effectiveness and give an important buy signal, enabling the price to take off again at the end of the year only to live out its bullrun to the full in 2025.
Scenario 4: Institutional Bearmarket
What if everything changed? What if, after 14 years of existence, Bitcoin were to fall into the hands of institutional investors, who could make all the difference? In this scenario, most investors waiting for a bullrun will never see it, and will suffer the breakout of the purple trendline to prices close to $20,000. Prices that should be close to the cost of mining after this halving. We would then be entering a paradigm shift for this asset, and it would be the end of the Bitcoin revolution with the very large controlling it.
Conclusion
So what’s your favorite scenario for Bitcoin 2024? Not easy to decide?
For my part, I don’t think scenario 4 will happen. Why not? Simply because too few people have anything to lose at the moment. Rather, it will happen after a bubble bursts, which hasn’t happened yet (as with the Internet).
As for my favorite scenario, I’m very hesitant. The bullish scenario looks pretty good, but will really depend on crowd mentality. I think a -30% would make for a good cleanup if realized, so I’ll lean more towards scenario 2 or 3. And since I have to choose, I’ll stick with my scenario 2, with perhaps a liquidation wick touching $30,000 but not a move below support.
This was my first article of 2024 for you. I’ve been with you all the way through 2023 and hope to be again this entire year! I wish you all the success you’re looking for and good health for you and your family! Happy New Year and see you next week for another market study!
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.
