The crypto market is displaying unprecedented optimism for the approval of a Solana ETF in the US. With SOL trading at $212.63, probabilities on Polymarket have jumped from 77% to 86% in a matter of days, figures that Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, considers “underestimated”.
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A climate of optimism emerges for Solana ETFs
The election of Donald Trump, a fervent supporter of cryptocurrencies, continues to breathe new life into the sector. Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform that allows users to bet on the outcome of real events using cryptos, is showing particularly encouraging results for Solana. On January 1st, Polymarket estimated the chances of a Solana ETF listing at 77%. Projections reached 84% as early as January 2, before climbing to 86%, buoyed by the sector’s enthusiasm in the face of a possible regulatory turnaround.
In a post on X, Matthew Sigel, Head of Research at VanEck, points out that these forecasts still underestimate the real potential for approval.
This prospect is reinforced by the promise of Trump to make the United States the “cryptocurrency capital of the world”. The change of administration could accelerate the evolution of the regulatory framework, particularly with the SEC. This January 6, we’re back to 73% for the “yes” vote.
An evolving regulatory context in the USA
The US regulatory landscape is undergoing a major transformation with regard to crypto ETFs. While the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have already paved the way with their “grantor trust” structure, Solana has yet to overcome certain obstacles. In particular, the SEC is questioning SOL’s classification between commodity and financial security. Nevertheless, recent political developments, combined with a more crypto-friendly Congress, point to a positive regulatory evolution.
As 2025 looms as a pivotal year for the crypto sector, the approval of a Solana ETF looks increasingly likely. This momentum is part of a broader trend of optimism, including ambitious price forecasts for Solana, with a target of $330.
As a journalist at Coinpri, I’ve been captivated by the world of bitcoin and blockchain since 2020. The decentralized aspect of Bitcoin particularly piqued my interest. Since then, I’ve been working constantly to spread my knowledge, hoping one day to see a world where everyone fully enjoys their financial freedom.
