Bitcoin, what to expect for the holidays?

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Let’s get started!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended as investment advice or as an inducement to invest. It is strictly for informational purposes only. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

It seems that the yellow scenario, presented a few weeks ago, is coming true. We will come back later on the potential goals to come.

In the meantime, this week was what we call a fake-out. That is to say that the market tried to break the triangle from above, but in reality, it simply chased the liquidity to sink to the south just after.

BTCUSDT 2022 12 18 19 29 38 - Coinpri
Highlighting the yellow scenario on Bitcoin

What we can see is that Bitcoin has already hit liquidity, a good omen? Maybe, let’s move on to the analysis of it all!

Analysis of the week

For this week, the big concern is the return below the working area of the triangle. This could have been used as support following the bullish break of the triangle, but by settling below it, it now acts as resistance!

Highlighting areas to watch on Bitcoin
Highlighting areas to watch on Bitcoin

The good thing is that we have already chased the cash at the $16,555 and we are back in the green zone called the long reload zone. In other words, this is the area where Bitcoin needs to buy back in order to see a rise again in the coming weeks.

However, is the liquidation at $16,555 enough? Not sure, we can see that another one is at $15,984.1. (The next one is the low point and there tchao bye-bye). This sell-off has had a more than positive effect on altcoins. We can see this by looking at the orderflow of them:

Orderflow of altcoins
Orderflow of altcoins

In just 1 week, we have wiped out almost all of the leverage on altcoins. This is very positive. Moreover, we see a new beginning of increase with a funding remaining in the negative, so probably shorts. What will be the conclusion then?

Will the shorts give us enough strength to go back up and liquidate? You tell me, before I give my opinion just below!


So, what’s your conclusion? You could say, “yes, yes, we’ve cleaned up enough”, but we don’t know. We can just make assumptions and the market will tell us its truth. For my part, I think we have cleaned up well, but Bitcoin hates to leave areas unattacked like the one at $15,984.10. Also, there are some very interesting areas to come and capture on Ethereum as well:

ETHUSDTPERP 2022 12 18 19 54 25 - Coinpri
Areas of liquidity to be fetched on Ethereum

The yellow areas in the image above are the liquidity areas on Ethereum. As you can see, there are two that stay very close! Meaning that a Bitcoin going for its last one would take Ethereum into these. A lot of points leading in one direction all the same!

However, personally, without FTX I don’t think we would have gone for these points. I still don’t think we’ll go any lower (the $12,000 that some people are waiting for so much!).

Of course, we are not immune to another Black-Swan event like a Binance bankruptcy could be. Nevertheless, we don’t have a handle on that kind of information and we will suffer through it. In the meantime, technically, I don’t see the market going for new lows without some help! I’ll leave you with these optimistic words, even though I think this week will be another tense one for our nerves with a retest of our previous lows!