Bitcoin, the return of fear on BTC

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Let’s go !

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice or an incentive to invest. It is strictly an informational article. You are solely responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Last Week’s Debrief

This week we finally got our high zone resolved. This zone that was “in combat” is now red again and has become a resistance. It did its job well and threw the price back towards the next support which is the current zone. Unfortunately, this time my bullish analysis did not work. In analysis, what counts is to be as wrong as possible!

Current area that we broke through in our January super pump. However, the question now: Will it be strong enough to hold and send the price back north? Or will it once again be a nice sieve and then it’s the $19,000 that will have to hold? I’ll try to help you answer these questions technically, but don’t forget that market sentiment has THE biggest impact right now!

Analysis of the week

Monday should be a quiet day as it often is the day before a big news. No, I’m not talking about Valentine’s Day, but about the US inflation figures which usually have a strong impact on the price (especially when the results are not as expected).

Today’s analysis will be based not only on momentum but also on sentiment. For now, I don’t see everyone announcing a return below 12k so I figure we can certainly continue to drop a little. In that logic then the decline should continue. Is this confirmed graphically?

What we can observe is that we are still above the 0.382 Fibonacci! This means that we are still in an overall bullish movement, but that we are simply doing a retracement. However, for this week, there is no sign of strength resuming on the move. This would mean that the movement would be bearish at least for a good part of the week. In this case the clear target is often cash, which is below the last low point which is at $20,386 on the chart above (the blue circle helps highlight the target area).

But is this confirmed by the orderflow part?

Here, what we see is the second chart rising, meaning that sellers who have turned the market are gradually exiting positions. But the funding (circled) is in the negative, this also means that the remaining positions are stronger on the side of sellers, certainly the last entrants who want to FOMO the descent and risk being punished in the very short term. And altcoins?

In contrast to Bitcoin (as is often the case), we try to catch the bottom on altcoins. However, the Open Interest chart shows that many positions have been closed, but relatively few compared to the total number of openings of the bullish movement, meaning that there are still a lot of smart guys to hunt. Especially since funding is rising rapidly…!

Conclusion

Late sellers on Bitcoin, as well as long sellers on altcoins. My analysis will be simple, I think we need to work this $21,000 support area and put some fear into it if we want to go back up quickly. To do this, the ideal would be to chase the cash below $20,386. We will have to stay on guard and wait to see the price and mass action at that point. Watch out for the volatility spike expected on Tuesday 2:30pm for intraday and scalper traders! Have a great week everyone!