Bitcoin out of breath for the end of February?

As I do every week, I review the previous week’s analysis and then explain my vision for the week ahead. Here we go!

Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an investment inducement. It is intended only as an article strictly informative. You are the only one responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.

Debrief of the past week

A nice red week, we feel like we’re a little out of breath for the bullish continuation. The buyers have let go a lot of juice in the rise and then they are liquidations that guided us to the $25,000 mark.

Bitcoin perpetual on Binance Weekly highlight with white verticals
Bitcoin perpetual on Binance. This week’s highlight with white verticals

“But how does he see this?” Simply in relation to the indicators below. The RSI and the MACD are two indicators that highlight the strength of the movement. They are called momentum indicators. In this case, we see that the price is making new highs while the indicators are not. This means that the price is boosted and rises without a buyer, we call this phenomenon divergences.

Here they are not yet “validated” but they are in the process of forming. So the question that’s going to come up for this week, Will we accentuate these divergences with a new high? Or, will we finally attack strongly on the downside?

Analysis of the week

First, let’s talk Macroeconomics. The FED can’t contain inflation and will probably resume an aggressive rate hike in the short term, which tends to push down risk assets and raise the dollar index.

Rise of the dollar Index
Rise of the dollars Index

What is reassuring is that it looks more like a simple rebound than a bullish recovery. The 105.8 resistance level and the $110 zone will have to be used if we want to see a strong recovery in the financial markets.

We saw above that weakness on the buy side was beginning to show. However, two completely contradictory things are showing up on the Orderflow.

On the one hand, on Bitcoin, we can see that the level we are at now is a zone where the longs tend to get into action. This often allows scraping the liquidity of sellers and therefore to raise the price.

Rise of the dollar Index
Highlighting the blue zone of the long ratio on bitcoin. This zone has frequently served as a bullish momentum on the price.

On the other hand altcoins funding has not yet turned negative. It would seem that long positions are in the majority and thus, Bitcoin will potentially go SOUTH to punish them.

Orderflow of altcoins In order: Bitcoin price, Open Interest altcoins, Funding altcoins, Liquidations altcoins
Orderflow of altcoins. In order: Bitcoin Price, Altcoin Open Interest, Altcoin Funding, Altcoin Liquidations

We can see that during the last retracement, before the return to the upside, the funding (circled) had gone negative. This is still not the case presently, so the leverage on altcoins has not yet been rinsed off.


The orderflow of altcoins and the strength of the movement on Bitcoin shows that the cryptocurrency market needs a breather. The obvious liquidation zone is now just below $21,405.

Bitcoin Support Zones
Bitcoin Support Zones

However, this area is the area of the first Fibonacci stop. It will then absolutely have to be held if we want to see a bullish attack on Bitcoin before the summer, otherwise the next zone which should be bought massively by the professionals is at the $19,500 level! Thank you for reading me for the first time or again! I wish you a good week and see you next week for more detailed analysis!