Stellar (XLM) – Will it be the same cycle again?

Let’s take another look at an altcoin that could perform, once again, in the next cycle. This time, it’s XLM, an old hand, as this blockchain has been around since 2014!

Warning This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. It is for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for your trading and investment decisions.

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Introducing the XLM corner!

This project was founded in 2014 by Jed McCaleb (co-founder of Ripple) and Joyce Kim. The aim is to reduce inequalities in access to financial services by basing itself on a new blockchain using a single consensus, the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP). Find out more about Stellar (XLM) and this decentralised infrastructure based on the speed, reliability and low cost of its network… We invite you to read our dedicated guide!

You know that my goal is mainly to talk graphics. Even if I’m interested in the technology behind it, it’s not my specialty to talk about it! On the other hand, determining buying and selling zones… I’m pretty good at that!

First, some brief info on the token:

  • MarketCap: $3,277,352,626 (Top 21)
  • Circulating Supply: 27,689,183,505 XLM (55.38%)
  • MAX Supply: 50,001,806,812 XLM
  • Dilution : Approx. 10% per year (determined graphically on CointraderPro)

So here we have a token that has proven its longevity over time, with rather healthy tokenomics. Now let’s see what it looks like from a graphical point of view!

Vision of the past

As the following graphic shows, it would appear that the XLM corner has a knack for repeating itself:

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XLM/USD from CoinMarketCap, cycles can be seen repeating themselves over time

The coin has experienced two complete bullish cycles. The first in 2017 took it from $0.001 to almost $1, then the next from $0.03 to 0.8*. Strange that it didn’t go through a second cycle with a new ATH some might think. Well, not all altcoins make a new ATH every cycle. Why not? Simply because when a token already has a high valuation, it can’t go up without stopping.

Let’s think together about a future price?

Crystal ball

Ideal shopping zone

Before determining a sale price, we need to determine a purchase price!

In green on the first diagram, you can see the very long-term support! It looks like the right deal is being made in this zone, below 10 cents (0.1$). A real buying force is in place on every cycle here. In fact, we can see that this was the previous ATH during 2017 before it broke down to $1.

Can we still buy it?

Graphically, the best entry point is support, and we’re in the middle of the range. In general, you don’t buy or sell in the middle of a range. However, for investment purposes, we are interested purely in price.

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Addition of Fibonacci retracement on XLM/USD from CoinMarketCap

The classic investor will thus add the Fibonacci retracements. Logically, below 0.618, this could be a good investment. But and because there is a BUT, given its recent curves, it’s better to buy altcoins at 0.886. And we’re right on top of it right now. Which could be a good long-term price – or at least for the next cycle.

Where to sell?

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XLM/USD CoinMarketCap sales area

To sell simply, all you have to do is determine the resistances. We won’t be talking about the 20 cents ($0.2) resistance zone, as it’s really very close (but ideal for range traders, as upper range). However, two other zones seem obvious: the 40 cents ($0.4), which has acted as support and resistance in the past, should do so again in the next cycle!

Finally, the bearish curve of the last two cycles provides a target for the next cycle (when?). If it takes places in early 2025, as predicted, then we should have a cycle top around the 60 cents (0.6$). This would allow XLM to already make a x8.5 from its low of this bear market, which seems highly plausible for a corner that is already high in the cryptocurrency rankings!


XLM has demonstrated its resilience over time and allows investors, in general, to earn their crust in the course of the bullish cycle. Will it happen again?

Well, yes, if the bull cycle arrives, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t. Especially as the project seems to be alive and kicking to stay at the top of the market’s assets.