As Bitcoin returns to the top of its range near its ATH, a new question arises. Are we ready for a new ATH, a new exceptional surge?
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A liquidation that has begun
Does the market tend to lose the majority? Yes. Otherwise it wouldn’t be fun. But has it corrected enough to be able to make a new ATH? That’s the question that needs answering.
Altcoins
In order, bitcoin price, altcoin open interests, altcoin funding and altcoin liquidations.
These are the jokers on the block. In fact, on Friday’s beautiful red candle, we really hurt the altcoins, allowing funding to return to neutral. Admittedly, there are still quite a few open positions that haven’t been liquidated, but a good first wave has calmed the levers on “where there’s the most money to be made”, i.e. the volatile tokens, altcoins. The orderflow, which you can see above, deserves to be even more severe, in order to make buyers want to buy. That’s the feeling we’ll be able to build on.
Is this enough?
No. Here you go.
Why isn’t this enough? From my point of view, we need spreads – i.e. the blue chart below Bitcoin’s – are moving back into negative territory to show bearish market sentiment. It doesn’t take much: a simple red candle like Friday’s could suffice, and would liquidate many long positions in parallel.
A nice chartist situation on BTC
In parallel with this bearish analysis, there’s a beautiful cup and handle being built on Bitcoin that could f*** up my whole plan!
The cup and handle is a very positive graphic figure, as it allows the formation of a W. A W of trend continuation, which would herald a longer-term uptrend. As a reminder, a minimum target would be around $78,000.
Conclusion
In an underlying bullish trend approaching bullrun, we must bear in mind that there’s nothing new and that professionals going on vacation could put a stop to the trend. It’s going to be increasingly difficult to determine short-term movements as we await the bullish break of our ATH, which should rhyme with a few green weeks. In the meantime, stay vigilant, because as you can see, we’ve got a lot on our plate at the moment, and even if a breakout would be cool, we mustn’t let it benefit too many people on the lever side!
For my part, if I were to enter a levered buy position, I’d wait for bearish sentiment to return to validate this and thus go against the tide. Indeed, observing sentiment is often the key to taking a winning position.
While we wait for this week’s results, I wish you a sunny and happy one!
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.
