In a tense US economy, where the future of the dollar is uncertain – will it be printed again or will the currency be preserved at the risk of destabilizing the country? The question arises: What if, despite all this, Bitcoin remains unperturbed and experiences an unexpected rise?
Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an investment inducement. It is intended only as an article strictly informative. You are the only one responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.
Debrief of the past week
The past week proved to be a monotonous one, marked by a constant expectation of economic news that proved to be unexciting. Indeed, the Federal Reserve (FED) continued to raise rates, waiting for the impact on the US banks.
At the gates of uncertainty, Bitcoin remains resilient, awaiting a steering move up or down. An economy on the verge of collapse always creates anxiety in the markets. But isn’t it in these anxious conditions that the best opportunities are found?
For a change, I’m going to be direct in my thinking.
The general sentiment is changing as the direction of the FED and the financial state of the U.S. remain unclear. Reprint to save the U.S. economy, or continuity to control inflation at the risk of a near-term collapse? No one has the answer except those who manage at the top. No speculation on that, just a statement of fact. People are starting to freak out over there.
Besides, the Ethereum network is overloaded with low-value tokens (hello to our fav shitcoins) that hinder its use. Even Bitcoin is now affected, although the $10-15 transaction fee is still relatively low compared to Ethereum.
Fear is beginning to be felt as support for Bitcoin approaches. This is a good sign. A holder has to be bought, that’s a market principle. If you sell a carrier, you risk losing 80% of the time (ok I’m bluffing a bit, I don’t know the exact stats, but you get the idea).
“How do you know that people are bearish?”
The concern about the U.S. economy is palpable on social media, although some believe the FED will reprint money, it’s not guaranteed.
But graphically, you can see it too! Thanks to my nugget, the orderflow. First of all the Bitcoin one:
It’s a nice one, isn’t it?
What do we see? The ratio of long positions is increasing. When it reaches the 65-70 zone, we have seen a rebound in the past. The open interest, on the other hand, is not moving. Investors are no longer passionate about ‘Bitcoin’. Finally, funding is strongly negative, which is usually a good omen.
What about altcoins?
For altcoins, funding alternates between positive and negative, meaning that there are soon more long positions than short positions! This is quite promising. Moreover, liquidations are significant. So we can estimate that if Bitcoin falls below its support, we should see many liquidations on Bitcoin and altcoins.
It’s hard not to position on support. Personally, I would lean towards a rise in the price for the coming week, especially if all these indicators remain as indicated above. However, be careful, a plan may not go as planned, that’s the risk inherent in investing. See you next week!
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.