Vroom vroom some would say! That’s kind of the case this summer! We can see that Bitcoin is enjoying even more popularity with the news about ETFs. Conversely, the SEC’s clean-up of altcoins seems to have worked!
Warning This article does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to invest. It is for information purposes only, strictly informative. You are the only one responsible for your trading and investment decisions.
A nice week!
We talked about it two weeks ago here. Still, we can clearly thank the SEC for bursting altcoins, which is strangely timely. Is it? Yes, not even a week later, we learn that everyone wants to deposit a Bitcoin spot ETF because crypto-currencies are just too good. Buy the fear they say…
A well-timed ETF announcement when Bitcoin couldn’t have fallen any lower anyway as altcoins were completely flushed. The liquidity was therefore to the north, so we can justify the rise by the news. However, we must also be realistic. For platforms to make money, prices have to go up!
An end to the rise? A bullish continuation?
The question is what comes next. Are we already on a top, what’s the outlook for the local market this summer? It’s true that summer is not necessarily the best time for price rises. Although… Summer 2019 would prove you wrong! So we need to think in terms of liquidity, always, and keep the season in mind. A bearish return will certainly take place on the $25-27k levels, but when? Can we go higher? In short, we’ll try to talk technique rather than ideas!
As usual, we’re going to talk about orderflow to begin our analysis.
Bitcoin Orderflow
This one is rather telling. Really? At least for those of you who have been reading or following me for a while.
The funding and the liquidations tell us nothing. In fact, there are no clearly identified large long or short positions and no more liquidation peaks. On the other hand, on the Ratio side long and open interest there’s something to be said for it! Bitcoin often sets the pace for the market, and here we can see that the Open interest are rising (i.e., many positions are opening – long as short), while the long collapses (i.e., the balance short in terms of quality is higher, has a stronger market presence than the long).
How to conclude? Well I look at the previous circled analyses. Every time we’ve gone back to such low ratio locations long then we had local tops on BTC/USD. It doesn’t mean we’re going to fall sharply but we still need a breath if we want to start rising again!
A parallel analysis of the orderflow altcoins.
Orderflow of altcoins
This one remains interesting! We had located the bottom thanks to the return to the $4.45 billion level of leveraged open positions in altcoins. Since Bitcoin’s bullish comeback, we’ve seen a return of interest in altcoins. However, we can’t speak of FOMO or a sharp rise. This has not yet been accompanied by a rise in funding, which remains low. So don’t worry, altcoins are breathing!
Conclusion
I’ll simply conclude today. It’s not certain that the downturn will happen right away! We may have a light but not sharp drop in the next few days. I’m keeping my target at 32,500 for Bitcoin ! Since a picture is worth 1,000 words, there we go:
Careful, don’t get too euphoric! We’re still a long way from the next halving and in principle, the next bullrun. So we will surely have opportunities to get back into Bitcoin this winter! Let’s not forget that ETF exits often herald a top, to be seen when these are released… In the 2nd quarter of 2024? In the meantime, probably a local Top this summer, at least that’s what we’ll see! For the moment no alert to get a big price dump. Subscribe to Coinpri and my Twitter for a more regular follow-up of what’s going on! Have a great week!
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.
