Bitcoin – Sell in May and go away

A well-placed adage in general, since professionals tend to take profits in order to get away for the vacations. The question arises as to its relevance this year.

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Is this adage really relevant to crypto?

“Buy when it snows, sell when it goes” or “Sell in May and go away”, these two adages amount to the same thing. However, the question of their relevance to Bitcoin remains. Let’s take a closer look.

Not an obvious answer in any case, on Bitcoin’s history, there have been 6 up phases following the month of May, compared with 7 down phases.

What is certain is the state of the bearmarket. In the latter, the adage works 100% of the time. On the other hand, in the Bear / Bull transition state and during bullrun, both occur with a slight advantage in the green! So the question arises for us. Will we then have a few weeks/months of downside before a bullish recovery towards an anthology rally once again… or will this rally be made to last without a dip?

A rally well underway

“An anthology rally”, he says, but haven’t we already completed a good half of it? Let’s not forget that the bottom is around $16,000, a far cry from our current $60/65K! Still, this means that the rally is well underway, even if most altcoins haven’t yet made their move. Indeed, they have performed, but they have done little or nothing to outperform Bitcoin. This shows that the end of the rally has not yet been reached.

If we now follow the logic of the cycle, we should be taking profits between the 40ᵉ and 80ᵉ weeks following halving! “There’s still time!” For those who have already bought yes, for those who don’t know when to get in it’s a different matter again.

We did discuss this a short while ago. A return below the lows of the current range would potentially be a great opportunity, and this took place at the end of last week with very strong liquidations on altcoins and bitcoin.
Unfortunately, few will have seized this opportunity. Are we sure this is one? Of course not, until we know the outcome.
On the other hand, time shows that retracements of 15-20% are usually bought back during a bullrun. A good sign at present!

Let’s get back to our chartist analysis, “What’s your opinion on the adage then”?

I don’t like to make pronouncements several months into the month. That is to say, I’m certainly bullish on the coming year, even if knowing how it’s going to unfold is more complex. Do I think we’ll see new highs in 2024? Yes. By summer? I’m not so sure. However, based on my previous analyses and the way the ranges work, what I expect looks like this:

Breaking out of a range first and then re-entering it usually leads to its other boundary. So, range resistance in our case! Yippee! Especially as it’s higher than $71,000. Will it hold this time? Nothing is less certain!
What’s more, we have confirmation from the RSI (1ᵉʳ indicator in purple) with the breakout of its downtrend. All in all, a good omen!

Conclusion

I’m looking forward to a bullish week, perhaps even the one after that, in order to wait for resistance liquidations. Let’s take a look at the state of altcoins on the orderflow side to make sure that a new FOMO doesn’t set in. As for the saying, we’re in a bullrun, so I hope that the statistics, which are in our favour, will continue to be so.

In any case, I wish you a great week and see you soon for more analysis!