After a worrying week for holders, the orderflow seems to show that this bearish movement is almost over. Can the US numbers change everything? Nobody knows the future, but here are some keys to anticipate it!
Warning : This article does not constitute investment advice or an investment inducement. It is intended only as an article strictly informative. You are the only one responsible for the trading and investment decisions you make.
Debrief of the past week
Last week we were starting to worry about a possible start of FOMO on altcoins. Not missed, this one to sting as Bitcoin didn’t let them live long!
Indeed, Bitcoin has decided to go back down and is almost back under its last low at $26,500. We’ll have to be careful, certainly at this point very quickly.
Then questions arise:
- A possible reversal then on Bitcoin?
- Too early to tell?
- Simple beartrap (=everyone thinks they should sell when the price will go back up).
We will try to see the points together to come out with the most sentiment-free conclusion possible.
Analysis of the week
A healthy uptrend rarely breaks the first Fibonacci stop. This is a truth, not absolute, but often very relevant!
Now in our specific case, this first stop is at the $25,000 level. Another match is that it is also located at the hit line of the giga W set by Bitcoin during this bearmarket.
A person wanting to enter after bottom validation will probably look to start entering around this level (and will certainly expand to $18,500, the neckline of the lowest – and incidentally most beautiful – W).
Two important announcements of the week will also arrive on thursday and friday: the first quarter growth figures for the US, followed by the inflation figures.
Figures of great importance for the future decisions of the FED and their applicable rate. So will it pivot, won’t it pivot? The question is not if, but rather when! Also, this week, there is also the release of the first quarter numbers of several market heavyweights (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Visa, etc.), which should add even more volatility.
Now my favorite tool is the orderflow!
The Bitcoin side of things is looking pretty good. We’re starting to get back into an interesting long ratio zone, and we’re starting to go up again with funding finally turning negative. Also, the Open Interests have calmed down quite a bit on this rapid fall of Bitcoin, so why not leave it at that? You must be starting to know me by now, and you know that I care about what people do on altcoins:
The great news about these are the liquidations that took place!
Last week, we were alerting about the FOMO that was put in place, and the Bitcoin move was fatal as we closed over 2 Billion positions! This brought IOIs back below 6 Billion. A more decent number when compared to the past.
However, I would have liked to see more negative funding. It hasn’t happened yet, but why not on a final decline?
Let’s look at one last chart:
These don’t fool anyone either, we’ve had a big run. And now it looks like we can look to the $30,000 mark, where aggressive sellers are certainly still in position!
I think you will have understood my conclusion, at the moment, it is difficult to see a new, really pronounced fall in Bitcoin. My reason is simple, neither altcoins nor bitcoin are giving the signal. Of course, we are not immune to a succession of bad numbers that would bring down the traditional market and by cascade effect Bitcoin. But it does seem that Bitcoin is close to the end of its decline.
So a bullish return this week? Possibly, depending on the numbers. However, there is a good chance that we will liquidate as close as possible before going back up. This liquidation is at $26,500 for Bitcoin. So quick wick? Probably in light of the orderflow!
Entrepreneur & Dad, passionate about cryptocurrencies, I describe for you the technical analysis. Cofounder of Cryptocademia, a free platform to learn all you want/can about blockchain ! Meet you there at https://www.cryptocademia.com
My job: look at charts and interpret them for you.
Beware, I do not know all the truths.